Ayane vs Hayate is a pretty fair match up, although it tips just a wee bit on Ayane's favor. A lot of people have always tried to say that Hayate beats Ayane because he's faster than her (lol@that). Hayate's only one faster option is his 6P and it loses to hold, 5K, side step and jab/PP.
Ayane's neutral;
i10/i13/i12
Hayate's neutral;
i10/i12/i14
Ayane has more for Hayate to be concerned about in CQC than he does for her. Ayane has tracking high, mid and low, while jab has a plethora of options he (and every other character) have to respect on hit and/or block. Hayate's 6P mid punch is a frame faster than Ayane's 6P and 6K mids, obviously you don't go mid for mid with any character that has faster mids than you. You only do so once you've condition the player to do something else.
However, Ayane has plenty of ways to stuff Hayate's 6P, jab being the easiest solution. 5K also gives a better reward (critical stun) against it and has a follow up to 5KK (also tracks, both 5K and 5KK). Mid punch hold also beats his 6P mid, but hold also beats your options. So with this, it all comes down to conditioning one another for a good answer to something. Just know that your options are here nonetheless. Of course, blocking is always a good answer as well.
Jab is -1 on neutral and -2 on block, 2P is +0 on neutral and -4 on block, for Hayate.
Hayate's strings;
PPPP - HHMM, -11 on block, strong knockback on hit. Also wall slams
PPP[P] - HHMM, +3 on block when fully charged, strong knockback on hit. Also wall slams
PP6PP - HHMM, -11 on block, +22 stun on hit or knockdown in critical stun threshold. Also wall slams
PP6PK - HHMM, -7 on block, knockdown on hit. Also wall slams
PP2KP - HHLM, -11 on block, strong knockback on hit. Also wall slams
PP2K2K - HHLL, -15 on block, +10 advantage on neutral, knockdown in critical stun threshold
6P's follow ups;
6PP - MM, -11 on block, +22 stun on hit or gut stun in critical stun threshold. Also wall slams
6PK -MM, -7 on block, knockdown on hit, also wall slams.
What a lot of Hayate players like to do after putting 6PK on block, is hit buttons from disadvantage. Their choices usually vary from 1P (low), jab (strings), 6P (again), 2P (low) and occasionally an 8P (mid launch). Smarter Hayate players will fuzzy guard or implement the neutral throw break option select. What you want to do in this situation is force that neutral throw on them. Moves that are usually -7 on block can be neutral throw punished. This forces the already bad -7 situation to become worse for them, because not only do they have to break the neutral throw. But later down the line, you can start mixing up neutral throw with a 4T/6T or actual strike to make them guess. Let them know that putting that -7 on block is NOT a good thing to do so often, at all.
Now, Hayate has some moves that can end with a positive guard break for +3 advantage.
PP6[P]
PPP[P]
9P[P]
66P[P]
66[P+K]
4P6P
9P[P] is the only one among them that cannot be interrupted by a strike or throw during the charge animation. And 4P6P can be interrupted by anything of i9 to i14 frames on reaction. However if any of the guard breaks do get blocked, he is at +3 and you do have to respect him since his neutral game becomes pretty potent with +3. But just know that you can actually interrupt this stuff on reaction if you practice doing it.
4P is also an i18 frame tracking mid that crushes high, and provides a powerful lift stun for +33 advantage. It has also 3 follow ups;
4PP ends high for -3 on block, also a knockdown
4P6P ends mid for a +3 guard break, also a strong knockback
4P2K ends low for a knockdown. And is the only unsafe/punishable follow up to 4P, low throw punishable at -15.
The best way to defend against 4P on block is to fuzzy guard immediately after 4P is blocked. By doing so, you eliminate 4PP as an option on block and can punish Hayate since he is unable to do anything for 36 frames. You will also find yourself having plenty of time to react to follow ups to 4P if Hayate tries to delay them. And him free cancelling into something else will lose to strike retaliation as well. In summary, always fuzzy guard right after blocking 4P from Hayate, your defense increases if you do it correctly.
Another thing Hayate has that can be tricky to deal with if you don't know how, is his 8P+K/2PK special movement. It is not a side step, it is just designed to move him around certain moves during it's active frames, primarily highs and fast mids. A side step is designed to step around "a" linear move". Hayate's movement can actually dodge tracking highs depending on speed and at the very start up in active frames of his 8P+K.
What smart Hayate players will normally do is use this move after putting something relatively safe on block, or from the 6PK -7 situation. It can happen often from something like 3K or 4P+K as well. It can also occur during the neutral from something like 2P low jab moments, either from you doing it or him.
PP will always beat the movement, no matter what. So will 4P, 1P, 3P and 3K. 3P and 3K will catch it because they are slower at i15 frames, so even though they don't track, they are hitting him because they simply match up well enough to catch him immediately after the start up of 8P+K.
5K, 6K and 6P will lose to 8P+K since they are too fast and whiff at the start up of 8P+K. PP works because the second jab is connecting after 8P+K's active frames are ending. Do not use P4P in this situation because 8P+K grant Hayate a nasty back turn stun on Ayane for +34.
Aside from immediate action, the best way to deal with 8P+K from an AFD (attacking from disadvantage) or neutral situation is just wait until Hayate starts to do it. If you know Hayate wants to do 8P+K, let him do it then catch him right after he does it. Or just simply block and let him do 8P+KP and throw punish him after blocking it.
Your entire idea of fighting Hayate up close, is to forcefully make him feel that his 6P mid will not be a threat to you. You do this with good use of your jab/PP (definitely your jab mix ups), 2P, 5K and very good blocking. You don't actually need your 6P or 6K mids up close in the match up. You'll only really use them once he starts trying to do something else about jab and 2P. Because once Hayate is trying to use his 2P low a lot, you've opened up more options for yourself for 6P and 6K along with 2P.
Now, during the range game is where things actually get interesting. Both characters have great options and mobility during spacing and footsies. Ayane is still better though because BT3 and 1P+K are simply strong tools in any match up. Whether you want to approach or bait something, or simply move, there is no way of telling if Ayane will do something out of either. And doing either and being able to cancel both really fast makes them very safe options at a distance.
With Hayate however, he has to actually pick and choose his spots more carefully. His 4P+K and 6P+K wind dashes always put him in a very specific range that is easy to screw up if you aren't calculating your ranges properly. This actually makes it a little easier to hit him once you pick up on the Hayate player's rhythm if they are influencing wind dash during footsies/spacing.
From 6P+K wind dash;
6P+KP is a high guard break for +7, knockdown on hit. Also wall slams
6P+KK is a mid kick, -5 on block and leaves him back turned. Knockdowns on hit. Also wall slams.
6P+KP+K is a launching mid punch uppercut, -11 on block, launches on hit. Also wall slams
6P+KT is a throw from the wind dash, 87 damage on hi counter throw. Slow and can be hit on reaction if you know what it looks like.
From 4P+K wind dash, he only has one strike option and it is a mid punch/elbow. -4 on block, strong knockback on hit, also wall slams. It can be charged up for +3 advantage as well. He can also cancel 4P+K into nothing and not move forward, or he can cancel 4P+K into 6P+K wind dash. Intelligent use of wind dash can allow Hayate to control space aggressively, but only if he's really calculating his spacing well with it. Otherwise it's actually not too difficult to hit or force him to whiff something.
He also has things like 66P, 66PP, 66P[P], 66PK, 66P2K, 2H+K, 3K, 236K, H+KK, [3]PP, [3]P2K, 4P (and follow ups), 1P, 1PP, and 1P2K during the range game. As well as 3H+K (and its follow ups). All of these are what's usually going to be seen and used a lot from a Hayate player during footsies/spacing.
If you have the life lead, then your job is to control the hittable space in front of you, while also not allowing Hayate to approach easily. This is done by forcing him to choose between only a few options for approach. Smart and excessive use of integrated movement safely with some occasional moves to control space (like 3H+K, jab, BT3K, 3P, 6P, 6P3, etc) are going to force Hayate to make decisions to deal with these things. BT3 will always force the opponent to do something about it because it is a such a good threat. Since it has a mix up between a mid launch and a low that has a must-hold mix up.
If he has the life lead, then you need to be patient and find a way to approach without 66KK4 or any of the forward rolling bullshit. People are expecting a 66KK4 and are normally ready to punish it since it is an easy punish. And rolling doesn't do anything against a good player.
Personally, what "I" do in the match up is just inch my way forward by simply walking/running forward, and mix that up with BT stance transitioning along with 1P+K and BT3. Getting right into their strike range with transitions will always force them to try and hit me and make me start all over again. So it's the best way to make them do something and now I'm in and can change things around.
Footsies against Hayate is going to vary per Hayate player, literally. So during this part of the fight, it's best to learn exactly what they like to do at range and just prepare for it. But the options up above are what you're always going to see, either more or less from that player (as in more 3H+K, or more 66P stuff, for example).
I say the match up is more of a 5-5 that is fair rather than dead even (because it isn't). It's not a free match up for either character in CQC, but Ayane has more ways to deal with Hayate in CQC than he does against her. The match up basically turns into a better match up for both during the footsies game. But 1P+K and BT3 are just much better during spacing than 4P+K and 6P+K. Because both 1P+K and BT3 recover a lot faster and always make you think about dealing them more than the wind dashes. The wind dashes do not recover quickly enough, so you either commit or you don't. The spins from Ayane simply move in their intended direction while actually not having to commit to their follow ups.
, but yeah, it does seem the more you get used to him the more limited he becomes.
