I recently saw this video in a Facebook group that had a combo against this tactic with everyone, but Eliot. So, I figured I would put in my two cents.
This is for any other players who struggle punishing this move. To answer any questions, yes this is all guaranteed. Fastest stagger, the whole nine. This is the max damage I have found, including hi counter holding the second kick and throw punishment. Hope you all find this helpful, enjoy.