all you need is a tragedy, without a justification to pull the trigger most wouldn't fight, with one you got another civil war
You give the common folk way too much credit. I've tried rallying people, telling them X, Y, and Z. Telling them about the martial law drills, etc. Surprise, surprise. All people say is, "well, i wish those welfare bums wouldn't have voted for Obama. He's just gonna kill us all anyway" or something totally dismissive along those lines, and also without a patronizing tone. People are just too lazy to care, because, right now, it's not them. At the risk of evoking Godwin's law, the same thing happened in Germany with the Jews. It happened in China with the "enemies of the state," and very clear at Tiananmen Square. There's just no hope for people who are afraid to fight for anyone other than themselves: they'd even rather give up their freedoms than fight for them. I can't even convince these people to register to vote.
They can take Crimea, but I doubt they will touch Ukraine. Even the Russians know they are playing with fire.
If that's the case, what are they really doing? Seeing if we'll take the bait? Taking a hell of a gamble just to humiliate Obama? Holding Ukraine hostage so we leave Iran and Syria alone?