That varies because DOA has a hold mechanic in play which is difficult to truly figure out what really goes on up close in a match (unless you are Leifang to with illogical feedback and derpy gameplay), what I'm merely pointing out is how tool-assisted they can be in terms of scenarios. Naotora is least likely to screw up in so many situational cases. One whiff moved is health loss no matter how one looks at it (If they choose to proceed for it but can also affect the opposite). If both players were mindlessly attacking strings up-close I'm sure it puts good odds for Honoka to likely win in those situations but not a favorable one minus speed priority..though that still isn't great due to potential moves on block leading to disadvantageous scenarios unless it's positive frames which is putting your cards out in play and hope it goes accordingly well for you with the opponent screwing up for you being at advantage.
Course, anything can happen. Thing with fighting games is that matches don't have to go according to paper exactly (similar to Bass vs Sarah where the match up is high in Sarah's favor yet it isn't the end of the world for Bass because a few holds and throwing specific moves from Bass can kill momentum instantly.). Comparing Naotora and Honoka, Naotora does actually have ways to avoid really bad situations that Honoka suffers from. It's just that between the two you'd really have to screw up with Naotora to have Honoka start things.
What I meant is that if Naotora is "forced" to block, this is good for Honoka and will not put her necessarily in a disadvantageous scenario, cause this means that she'll have more chances to use her 6T throw that puts her in advantage, not to mention that Nao has slow crushes and no evasive tools.
Basically, my point is that in the close range situation it's very difficult for Nao to start things off, as she doesn't have ways to deal with certain situations in which Honoka can put her, or pressure in general (I may be wrong?). She would have to wait for Honoka to mess things up in this scenario (and that is not guaranteed to happen), but yeah all this varies, because like you said, DOA has a hold mechanic.
Of course it's easier for Naotora to put Honoka in a bad situation by back dashing and deal with her quite "easily" at mid range, or strike/throw punishing her right away if she whiffed a move (which would likely happen considering Honoka's reach).
Honoka vs Naotora in 6-4 in Honoka's favor seems very unlikely. 5-5 is a stretch and isn't bad at all. Though I do feel Naotora does have more potential play, especially with the game having walls. Not saying you are incorrect as I'm willing to be corrected on the matter so I'll wait a bit, though I do feel she has more edge in the match here, especially with DOA having a lot of free movement with things hitting the fan quick.
6-4 in Honaka's favor definitely no, with "slightly" I meant something like 5.2 or 5.3 - 4 xD
Naotora can be sure good with the wall game (if that's what you meant), Honoka too though, if not better.