Pretty sure he has better stuns regardless.
You're "pretty sure"? Or have you broken it down side by side and played both of the characters on a serious level? I don't mind if you haven't been to tournaments or an offline spot but if you at least know the frames, damage, and safety (etc.) that you're talking about by heart, then I'll listen completely.
Busa can't see a 12 frame mid...so everytime I go for an Izuna counter you get a chance for a free hi counter throw of your choice. That sounds pretty even.
It's a risk because believe it or not whiffed holds from neutral aren't [that] slow to recover. Here's the thing though, the damage that you get from a NH Izuna Hold is much more than you get from a hi counter 6p which allows Hayate to GUESS again, higher than any throw in Hayate's arsenal that doesn't exceed 10 frames (on hi counter), and Hayate's punishment throw that would take care of the better option than the hold... which would be ... oh what do you ya know, guarding. 72 damage isn't much of a difference, but a difference is a difference and Busa exceeds it.
On the subject of the move itself, 6p will not stun on NH and it will put him at disadvantage (-12) and like I said, it won't grant him a NC follow up from 6pk or 6pp which are both unsafe on block so a simple T or 6T (preferably) will finish the job and make it so that Hayate will have to wonder before checking sidestep with it. It's a beautiful thing actually. Even if you switched out 7k and didn't get it blocked (-30 so free 214p, 33p, combo), it's only 45 damage, and 67 if you're on close hit. The hold itself STILL exceeds that damage.
So risk 67 - 72 or chip damage on hit with -12 disadvantage damage on hit vs getting 75 - 112 damage... from one guess and training oneself to finish a izuna hold input? Risk vs Reward.
The reason I stress about those two moves so much is that once Hayate gets pressured to not use those moves, K and 6p come into play or Hayabusa. 12 frame high kick will shut down 6p by itself, because as a high kick, it does more damage naturally. There will be no trade. 6p will be counter blown, and even if that Hayate reaction low holds, KP is another move in the equation, and surprisingly this move has a good stun. (+21, +13 on highest SE which is a 50/50, they high hold or you get a free jab or a deep ass stun).
See one thing people fail to understand is the importance of high to mid mix-ups that stun in this game. Someone like Ayane can get away with not having one because she's so damn good in general... but Hayate's high to mid mix-ups do not stun. They simply knock back putting Hayate into a wake up situation or a reset to neutral. Great now we have to start over again because someone wanted to low hold. Not even a jab, 6p will work as good as KP from Hayabusa, or P2P for JL, P6P for brad, etc. This is where Hayate's stun game starts to falter in comparison to Hayabusa's.
6p or Busa is 13 frames. Basically, if KP won't stop Hayate's options, this will. That leaves Hayate with a jab that's... oh... +2 on CH hit and disadvantage on NH. Great, now what?
Hayate wins in speed and the spacing game. Who says you have to go for 6P constantly? Pretty sure he has better stuns regardless. Plus doesn't Hayate have normal hit mid kick launchers? Hayate's strength is in staying away and punishment. His speed is just something you can annoy people who are not grapplers with.
Untrue again. Hayate DOES win in the speed game... only because of 7k being the ultimate win though they both have their jab to shut down things.
He does not win in the spacing game, at range Busa gets stronger mix-up because not only does he have virtually the same mix-up game as Hayate on mid-ranged moves, but he also can play the long-ranged game better if done correctly. Hayate is not about staying away. He WAS about coming in hard but now other characters can do what he does in a better way.
As for punishment, Busa can punish more moves and it's a lot less stressful because of his overall grab damage (Busa 6T, 50 damage, Hayate 6T, 42 damage and 236T which is harder to get out on reaction punishment than 6T comes in at 72 points of damage at ALL times).
One grab does not level out a situation. A thousand more opportunities to throw makes a WAY bigger difference. I can't tell you how many -7 moves and -5 moves have made the match so much easier. Hell Hayabusa can punish Hayate's newest and best ranged safe move (Wind Dash K) and that throw is guaranteed because why? You guessed it, 4 frame neutral back throw, and the guard stun is so long to recover that you can react CONSISTENTLY to it, the worst part is the risk of wind dash k becomes more than the reward.
So yea I don't buy that punishment becomes 10x better for Hayate just because his grab that can punish the same things as Hayabusa is 22 points of damage more and harder to input than a simple 6T for 50 damage (+wall damage)
Since Ryu can punish 6PK.
6PK is punishable in general but only by neutral throws. Grapplers get free 6T's all day meaning I can't check sidestep with it on him over and over which becomes a hassle.
Hayate's SSP is also amazing.
On hit it's amazing. 80 damage raw from the full combo on lightweights. As for Ayane she gets neutral on block and tracking off of 3h+k which grants her a free launch and combo as well. Hayate should have safety on P+K but he doesn't, he's at -13
Pretty sure he has better stuns regardless.
Not necessarily. Hayabusa's sit-down stuns are a bit easier to work with. 214P can be used in stun off of 6k which will guarantee a launcher or it can even be used as a mix-up, not to mention that sitdown stun is a frame trap on block (+2). Hayate's SD stuns are all unsafe on block and knockdown in stun or they require you to guess twice to get to them. BT 4k requires you to get into BT with 4p or 4k and 3PP is a two hit string, meaning you guess twice. 214P only guarantees the follow up in the string as a launcher but requires the opponent to be crouching and at range. If you're crouching at range, then you deserve more than a weak launch like that. Hayabusa's other SD stun that guarantees little to nothing (at least a 3p threshold break launch) is -1 on block.
How is that even, not to mention Ryu's stuns are deeper, exceeding +40 sometimes because of the fact that his launchers a slight bit slower, fastest on coming in at 18 frames, or 15 frames if you count the 6kk which requires you to guess twice but it's mid high, not mid mid like 3PP (which guarantees a 33K for Hayate). Hayabusa's possible damage output is higher than Hayate's as well because of his air throw which can just be used as an ender period off of any launch to give at least as much as Hayate's BNB pp6pk.
Hayate lacks good stuns as well, like limbo and faint. I'm pretty sure that I heard there was supposed to be a faint stun or Ryu but I haven't seen it so I don't believe it. What I do know is he gets a limbo off o Ongyoin PP into a guaranteed BT cancel 4k, for a free Ongyoin K, 8p, Air Throw.
Hayate wins on launcher speed like I said before. His launch heights are... pretty good actually. If he does land his good sitdown stuns, he'll probably be chunking you for at the least 72 damage, depending on the initial hit. Hayate also has solid enough stuns to get launchers off of of some good moves so he's definitely not defenseless in the stun game and the 2 in 1 launchers off of 4k6k or guessing after 4p (granted you're at the end of the threshold) will give you a 50/50 between 6p+k~p+k and 6p+k~k. It's nice.
On the subject of NH launchers, like Tenryuga said 8p, 33k, 8k. 8p is pretty good but unsafe and even though there's follow ups it involves commitment. 33K is the same deal, commitment and even as a block string I get held out of the air ONLINE. If it can happen online and offline, it's probably not good... and raw 8k? Please. >_>
On that note, Hayate only has a safe threshold breaking launcher but that move isn't even safe against Hayabusa (wind dash K), and once again, you have to break the threshold to get that launch.
Hayate does have launcher speed over Ryu. 15 frames with 33k. That's a strong suit.
I could go on and on, but I won't.