Rikuto
P-P-P-P-P-P-POWER!
Accumulated probability for dummies and how easy it is to guess your way out of a tight spot in DOA. This is not for debating why you like 3 point or 4 point, it's to show you how stupid you are if you actually do with its current implementation of holds in stun from doa 4-d-5 alpha.
This threads purpose is not to determine whether the damage is in the attackers favor or not, that is always going to be match up based and environmentally situational. These are the odds of actual success as an attacker, however. This is the hard math a lot of you either don't care about, or would simply rather pretend doesn't exist.
The correct formula to determine this is to take your direct odds of landing a successful attack during any engagement, including the first part that leads to the stun, and multiply it by itself for however many holds you will need to stuff.
If a decent launch height can be achieved within 3 guesses -- the initial attack, the first hit in stun which we'll be generous and say is a magical 2-in-1 since DOA 5 might actually have those, and the launch -- then these are the odds of successfully doing so without resorting to a throw as the attacker both under 3 point and 4 point.
(note that all of these calculations are done with the knowledge that the low hold will also avoid highs)
4 point.
Three options can be cycled between to avoid everything you are doing, therefore on every guess you have a 2/3 chance of guessing correctly on attack.
2/3*2/3*2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%
This means you, as the attacker, only have approximately a 30% chance of finishing your combo even if you are determined to strike as randomly as possible and your opponent is determined to hold without any clue of where you will be attacking. These are the actual odds.
3 point.
Only two options are actually necessary here, the low and the mid. This means you have a 1/2 chance of success on every attack.
1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%
This means you, as the attacker, only have approximately 13% chance of finishing your combo even if you are determined to strike as randomly as possible and your opponent is determined to hold without any clue of where you will be attacking. These are the actual odds.
On Throws
The possibility of throwing your opponent assumes that the attacker can indeed react to the hold animation and throw punish consistently, however he still must wait idly by as that happens and the defender may simply recover from the stun in this time. The odds for the attacker therefore diminish to a final 1/2 chance of "hold" or "no hold" instead of the possible 2/3 that he would normally get if he had chosen to go with a striking option on 4 point.
Alternatively, the attacker can choose to randomly toss out the throw instead of waiting for the hold on faith that it will arrive, but the odds of success actually decrease as the defender now is working with three ways of getting out of the throw instead of one. This happens because the defender can low hold out of a standing throw, mid/high hold out of a low throw, or simply do nothing at all and avoid both options completely.
Derp
So, these are the odds of you actually finishing your attack when your opponent is giving a damn and knows what's going on. Now imagine you're playing DOA 4 and the counter actually hurts. Doesn't seem like such a great game anymore, does it?
TL;DR
You don't get one.
(Feel free to lock after this is up, it's only an information source so I don't have to keep typing it for lazy people. I'm not going to entertain another debate between ignorant assholes who don't understand the concept behind reading before they start accusing me of witchcraft.)
This threads purpose is not to determine whether the damage is in the attackers favor or not, that is always going to be match up based and environmentally situational. These are the odds of actual success as an attacker, however. This is the hard math a lot of you either don't care about, or would simply rather pretend doesn't exist.
The correct formula to determine this is to take your direct odds of landing a successful attack during any engagement, including the first part that leads to the stun, and multiply it by itself for however many holds you will need to stuff.
If a decent launch height can be achieved within 3 guesses -- the initial attack, the first hit in stun which we'll be generous and say is a magical 2-in-1 since DOA 5 might actually have those, and the launch -- then these are the odds of successfully doing so without resorting to a throw as the attacker both under 3 point and 4 point.
(note that all of these calculations are done with the knowledge that the low hold will also avoid highs)
4 point.
Three options can be cycled between to avoid everything you are doing, therefore on every guess you have a 2/3 chance of guessing correctly on attack.
2/3*2/3*2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%
This means you, as the attacker, only have approximately a 30% chance of finishing your combo even if you are determined to strike as randomly as possible and your opponent is determined to hold without any clue of where you will be attacking. These are the actual odds.
3 point.
Only two options are actually necessary here, the low and the mid. This means you have a 1/2 chance of success on every attack.
1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%
This means you, as the attacker, only have approximately 13% chance of finishing your combo even if you are determined to strike as randomly as possible and your opponent is determined to hold without any clue of where you will be attacking. These are the actual odds.
On Throws
The possibility of throwing your opponent assumes that the attacker can indeed react to the hold animation and throw punish consistently, however he still must wait idly by as that happens and the defender may simply recover from the stun in this time. The odds for the attacker therefore diminish to a final 1/2 chance of "hold" or "no hold" instead of the possible 2/3 that he would normally get if he had chosen to go with a striking option on 4 point.
Alternatively, the attacker can choose to randomly toss out the throw instead of waiting for the hold on faith that it will arrive, but the odds of success actually decrease as the defender now is working with three ways of getting out of the throw instead of one. This happens because the defender can low hold out of a standing throw, mid/high hold out of a low throw, or simply do nothing at all and avoid both options completely.
Derp
So, these are the odds of you actually finishing your attack when your opponent is giving a damn and knows what's going on. Now imagine you're playing DOA 4 and the counter actually hurts. Doesn't seem like such a great game anymore, does it?
TL;DR
You don't get one.
(Feel free to lock after this is up, it's only an information source so I don't have to keep typing it for lazy people. I'm not going to entertain another debate between ignorant assholes who don't understand the concept behind reading before they start accusing me of witchcraft.)