Some interesting discussion... I will continue to play devil's advocate just a bit. I broadly agree with everything said and really am making smaller points than some think
On the discussion about what needs to be done to the game and how much time we think Team Ninja has - we can't assume the worst with the info we have. Mr Wah points this out very well.
What we do know and you guys did talk about a little bit is they've communicated a little to us about DOA, but not a lot, which is because they have Ninja Gaiden to talk about and info about DOA will ramp up after its launch.
It will be a while before we have clarity around how long TN have been working on it, their focuses, but we've seen hints on twitter they've been planning new ideas for some time. Implementation of the system has likely been underway since before the TGS video, as Mr Wah has pointed out before, those builds are shown based on what was it, work from approx 2 months prior?
I understand the concerns but given what we know about the timeframe and that we know they have enough staff (by Hayashi's word) to have a full dev team on two games at a time, I don't think we need to panic about their bandwidth and certainly shouldn't make detailed assumptions about what they can and can't do in detail.
They are a top development team who know how to deliver polished games. No reason to worry at this point about CAN they do it; our place is to query WHAT they'll do - what the design decisions are.
Player input and community interaction is thankfully underway through Mr Wah and hopefully this will ramp up early in 2012.
That brings us back to the Itagaki thing. Briefly, I don't think its about his ego as a player; his decision to make changes late in development (I'm inclined to agree a poor decision, commercially if not in terms of the product compared to X05 build).
It was about his design vision for the game and his auteur notions for how DOA4 should play that drove him, not because someone beat him at the game. He's a designer not a player. He doesn't care about being a good player, he cares about the game working in the way he envisioned.
Either way, DOA4 was rushed and he had to compromise; maybe this is splitting hairs but I'm just saying its wrong to look at it as a personal play ego thing. It's a designer thing.
Sales - don't get me wrong, the number is low.
But the factors aren't as simple as comparing it to games in the same genre, because those later games were sold at different times in the cycle.
And don't get me wrong, I'm not comparing it to Street Fighter, I'm saying any fighting game released before SF4 this generation was pushing shit uphill; the genre was brought back to light and fighting games are NOW likely to do better, not worse, because of it.
Thus, we don't really know how DOA5 will sell in this new, post SF4, more fighter-friendly/aware time, on two consoles with BIG install bases.
Soul Calibur 4's sales are all the more impressive given it's in the pre-SF4 period, but it had a much bigger install base.
I don't agree with the notion that just because DOA4 was on sale throughout this time that it should have kept selling. Everything is about DAY 1 sales. Retailer budgets, open to buy, promotion, shelf space, it's all geared around that.
I work in the entertainment wholesale business and I see it all the time, and the games industry is the worst for this
The idea that DOA4 was on sale during this period is basically irrelevant because it wouldn't flow through to retail. Do we know when it made platinum hits? Was it catalogued?
As for PGR, getting a sequel raises brand awareness at retail so you get people buying the old one cheap when they see the new one at a high price. And that was in 07!! DOA's sales window was closed way before CGS.
Also, game quality is not important to sales. The game reviewed really well, so doubly irrelevant.
Either way, it's considered an old game by retailers so hard to find. Its sales window was as a game in an unpopular genre during its lowest install base period but AFTER launch so it lost impulse sales (Itagaki's greatest mistake, changing it enough to delay it off launch).
So that means it compares to the other B launch titles more than it does to other fighters, so it did on par with that group.
The fact is, it's a different world that DOA4 was sold in to DOA5. The closest measure is Tekken which sold poorly on Xbox (maybe due to perception as a PS game?) despite being released after SF4. MK9 did well though, and you'd have to agree on the whole fighters are doing better in the post sf4 period.
What's the upshot of all this? Past sales don't help us that much given how much things have changed.
2012 is a new ball game. DOA5 needs to keep the goodwill its garnered so far with its great first trailer, it needs to be seen to be listening to its players. With a bigger, hungrier fighting game audience out there, it's better positioned than DOA4 to make its sales.