can you do it? Yes, can you do it most of the time? Hell no! Its not that easy.
...you'd be surprised. Most of my damage comes from counters/holds.
Thats a guess too. It is basically saying "Ok this guy usually throws a mid punch after wakeup, so let me try mid punch holding to see if it works." It is still a guess. Now if the opponent was halfway decent, they would condition you to hold the mid punch after wakeup and grab you instead. As a matter of fact, when you said you held people by reading them, I figured you ment you held them after a few strings. Attempting to hold the first string immediately is even more of a guess than waiting for the launcher. Unless the move is like i60, where you can always react to it once it is thrown, i highly doubt anyone has the reflex to automatically detect whether the person is going to throw a mid P, mid K, high, low, grab, or low grab on the first shot.
It's less "he usually does this", and more "What would I do if I was him, using his playstyle, in his position?"
Like you said, decent players condition their opponent. And thats what I do, its why its a lot easier to constantly counter than you'd think. Condition the opponent to use certain attacks, then counter said attack. Now I'm not saying i'm perfect or psychic or anything, I'm just saying it's what I do.
Like you said, some better players try to grab the holds. Doesn't really work due to mixup (Tried grabbing as I'm doing a low sweep instead, because I conditioned them to try to grab, thinking I'd counter again.).
Again, the issue is you are thinking of it in terms of "on reaction." I'm thinking of it in terms of "think three steps ahead". And no, i'm not trying to make myself sound good by saying this (like I said, i'm nowhere near as proficient with this playstyle as I used to be/want to be), I'm explaining the different approaches to using counters. I'm not perfect at it by any means, but getting better every day.
Now, yes, there is still some guessing...however, theres very LITTLE in the way I'm doing. It just all depends on if I've done a good job reading and guiding the opponent's actions, rather than factoring on guessing alone. Its like herding sheep. Sure theres a chance they'll swerve off, but for the most part, they are following the route you laid out for them.
Now, if I can't read their playstyle/mentality, my way doesn't work. But since everyone has a playstyle, it usually just comes down to whether I screw up or not.
So....i'd say maybe 10% guessing? 15 tops? Also, for reflexes, I grew up on Burnout, Wipeout, Sonic, Fzero, etc. My reflexes are pretty good lol.
Don't get me wrong, the way I'm doing it is insanely hard, as its about outmaneuvering, rather than simple execution. And I screw up a lot still. So like I said, don't take this as "my way is better" or anything, I'm just saying I use it, and it works, and its fun.
Blah. Again, apologies for rambling. I always think I haven't explained it right, so I just keep yapping trying to get it right.
