I can figure out WHERE my opponent will hit me, but HOW? I'm not a mindreader yet! Or maybe I should get scouter reports and watch hours of videos like pro athletes!... And what are the odds of knowing your opponents best set up? I could try getting into the math, but I'd turn into a mad scientist lol
On another note, apparently Team Ninja was justifying the 4pt Holds decision based on feedback from fans... Which fans? Because only Xbox DOA4 players actually tested the 4pt System. All the other DOA players never did. On top of that, DOA4 sold way less units worldwide than DOA2 or DOA3. So what portion of fans were they paying attention to?
DOA 1 (arcade): used 2 point parries with no holds in stun.
DOA++ (arcade): used 2 point parries with a 6 point system inside of stun.
DOA 2 (arcade): used a double-direction 4 point system.
DOA 2 (home version/hardcore PS2/DC): used 4 point system with the option of selecting 3 point.
DOA 3 (xbox): used a 3 point hold system.
DOA2U (xbox): used 4 point hold system.
DOA 4 (xbox): used 4 point hold system.
DOAD (3ds): used 3 point holds.
DOA 5 Alpha (multiplat): used 3 point hold system.
DOA 5 Current (multiplat): uses 4 point hold system.
It's been back and fourth across multiple platforms for years. They've had a very, very, very long time to consider this... besides that, a PS3 user is not going to arbitrarily have a different opinion on the hold system than a 360 user. If they are competitive fighting gamers, they are both going to see the flaws of the hold system.
DOA 4 sold poorly because it was a poor game.
Finally, you don't need to be psychic or even know where your opponent is going to hit you... just guess, seriously. Like I said, with 3 point its a coin flip... flip the coin enough times you're gonna get it right, who cares which side you pick. You only have to guess right once, its your opponent thats gota guess right a bunch of times. Why overthink it?
If you want to be logical about it you can look for patterns... but thats not exactly required under such a simple system that favors the defender so much.