I don't feel insulted in anyway i'm happy DrDogg linked the thread because it made me realize that my statement "An attacker has
always 75% of winning the guessing game" was wrong since indeed low counters avoid high attacks and grabs and i forgot to take that in to consideration.
Just to make this clear i'm not trying to attack or offend anybody here just giving my opinion and i know this is totally off-topic but i'm gonna post this here and see what happens.
Rikuto:
4 point.
Three options can be cycled between to avoid everything you are doing, therefore on every guess you have a 2/3 chance of guessing
correctly on attack.
2/3*2/3*2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%
This means you, as the attacker, only have approximately a 30% chance of finishing your combo even if you are determined to strike as randomly as possible and your opponent is determined to hold without any clue of where you will be attacking. These are the actual odds.
Sam:
These odds or not correct since an attacker has not 3 options but 4.
Attacker's options: High attacks, mid-p, mid-k, low attacks, grabs and low grabs (6 options).
(Countering)Defender's options: High counter, low counter, mid-p counter and mid-k counter(4 options) This makes the odds for a successful counter 1on 4(25%)
Since low counters avoid grabs and high attacks(even tough it does leave the defender in disadvantage an if the defender decides to attack after evading high attacks or grabs after a low counter the attacker gets a free guaranteed hit on the defender with any move as fast as 15 frames) and counter low attacks these options can be seen as one option for the attacker and thus leaving the attacker with 4 options and thus the odds for a successful hit 3 on 4(75%). So basically the attacker has 75%(3/4) chance landing a hit and not 66.6%(2/3). This would make the above calculations for the first successful hit 3/4 = 75% for the second successful hit (3/4)^2 = 56.3% and for a 3rd successful hit (3/4)^3 = 27/64 = 42.2%. Now what does this mean, this only means that if you where to attack an randomly countering opponent you would most likely land the first hit and you would probably also land the 2nd hit but you are probably not gonna land the 3rd hit(Keep in mind that these are probabilities and thus not 100% facts also these are only valid when we are talking about a non crouching, totally random countering opponent). So if you launch the opponent after the first hit or even launch them right away you would probably be fine against a randomly countering opponent.
Now let's take a look at a defending opponent's likelihood to successfully counter your an attackers moves.
The probability of an defender to counter the attacker is 1 on 4 = 25%. It is not necessary to talk about what the odds are for a defender to counter the whole string since after on successful counter the whole situation is reset.
But for those who are interested:
To counter the first and 2nd hit it's (1/4)^2 = 1/16(6.3%), to counter the first 2nd and 3rd hit it's (1/4)^3 = (1.6%)
There are also other miscalculations in Rikuto's thread but i'm not gonna correct them all in this thread. This is just to show you that an attacking opponent has advantage over an defending opponent in any situation.
If you think that i'm not correct or i made a miscalculation(although it's elementary mathematics) or whatever please respond with a clear description of what i did wrong or why you disagree with me TNX.
