Can I still use holds to escape damage really often? Yes, so they're still "too powerful." Power isn't just measured in damage and the fact that I can still use them to escape scary scenarios, granted slightly fewer than DOA4, still makes them far too powerful and prevalent. I was casually playing DOA5 in front of one of my brother's friends and his impression, that I didn't push to get, was that he "hadn't seen a game so dependent on counters before." If super casual players are picking up on that then we clearly have an issue, no matter how much people like you or Raansu want to claim otherwise. So what is the hardcore fighting game community going to think when they see that again?
I don't think that even in the current state that holds/counters are too powerful and prevalent. It's a feature of the game, but now that you get punished hard for doing them wrong (by good players), there is a counter argument about the deeper game.
Obviously, I'm still slightly concerned by virtue of asking for 4 point holds.
But, I think the scenario you give above of casual players making that observation, is a fair example to use, but I think you're drawing an inverse conclusion of what hardcore players will understand. Casual players may observe the counters, but competitive players worth their salt will investigate and find out how much pain is in for hold-happy players who make mistakes.
I'd say its up to us as DOA players to explain that dynamic - sure, holds are easy to do, but if you get them wrong, you're opening yourself up to damage. I've found that one of the most gratifying and easy to explain things to fighting players who have tried the new demo. Its got its risk-reward factor about right (I think 4 point would do away with the "lucky hold" as much as it needs to) and hardcore players will appreciate that. I know I do.